This research examines whether food and energy subsidy reforms trigger protests and political instability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Despite widespread government concern that subsidy reforms could provoke regime-threatening unrest, this assumption has not been systematically tested. The study aims to determine if factors such as reform type, timing, framing, and compensatory measures can mitigate potential negative effects. The researchers are developing a comprehensive dataset of all subsidy reforms and announcements in the MENA region from 1975 to the present. By combining this with existing protest event data, they will assess which types of subsidy reforms most likely trigger popular mobilisation and instability. The project seeks to enhance understanding of the relationships between fiscal/social policy, popular mobilisation, and political stability. It aims to identify nuances in social contracts and the effects of managing sensitive policy reforms. Findings will have significant implications for designing more inclusive social policies and preventing conflicts in the region.
DOI: 10.48352/uobxmenasp.0012
Authors: Moritz Schmoll, Assistant Professor in Political Science (University Mohammed VI Polytechnic), Amir Abdul Reda, Assistant Professor in Political Science (University Mohammed VI Polytechnic) and Thomas Richter, Lead Research Fellow (German Institute for Global and Area Studies)
This project is supported by the Middle East and North Africa Social Policy Network (MENASP) at the University of Birmingham, in the framework of its ‘strengthening social welfare and security in the MENA region’ research programme, funded by the UK Arts and Humanities Research Council’s Global Challenges Research Fund.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Middle East and North Africa Social Policy (MENASP) Network or the University of Birmingham.